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Posted 7/7/25

POST-PANDEMIC BLUES

Thievery – some of it violent – besets our nation’s recovery

     For Police Issues by Julius (Jay) Wachtel. It’s a frightening scene. A surveillance video depicts a hooded carjacker point an assault pistol at a passer-by who’s headed to his pickup. That truck became the latest haul – the BMW in which the gunslinger arrived was also stolen – of a group of ten armed ne’er-do-wells, all between 19-24 years of age, whose evildoing plagued St. Louis.

     Their turn before the judicial podium finally arrived. Only three members of the ring were initially charged. Filed on May 15, 2024 in a Missouri Federal Court, the indictment accused the defendants of stealing vehicles from individuals and dealers in Missouri and Illinois and reselling them in other States (case no. 4:24-CR-233). Some of the thefts, such as the one pictured, were carjacks committed at gunpoint, using “tools” ranging all the way to machineguns. Other hauls involved smashing into automobile dealerships at night, where they’d break into lock-boxes to get keys for driving off with their haul. As one might expect, the capers didn’t always go smoothly:

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On or about January 21, 2024, the coconspirators arrived in the 2017 blue BMW stolen from Isringausen BMW on December 6, 2023 and burglarized the David Taylor Belleville Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram dealership…Local police thwarted the coconspirators, but they managed to escape, fleeing from police in the blue BMW down Illinois Route 115 at 113 miles per hour.

     But there were more than three no-goodniks. So the Feds kept at it. On June 18, 2025 a superseding indictment (click here for DOJ’s news release and here for a news account) accused all ten members of the group of forming a criminal enterprise – they called themselves “The Strikers” – that used carjackings and burglaries to snatch desirable vehicles for resale to associates and through social media. Plunders were usually staged after considerable research and preparation. Their m.o. included surveilling their target, then positioning lookouts and donning masks and other disguises when time came to strike. Following a steal, they would try to disguise the origins of their spoils by switching license plates and removing or obscuring VIN’s.

     On April 17, 2025 “a den of thieves” plundered a home in a rural Northern California town. Its resident, a 64-year old woman, reported the crime to the Butte County Sheriff. But that wasn’t the end of her troubles. Here’s an outtake from the D.A.’s June 26, 2025 news release:

...the victim was forced to stay away out of fear that the burglars would find her at her residence during their illegal activity. Additionally, extensive damage was done to the home during the criminal activity, so much so that it has allowed bears to access the residence…

     According to authorities, that “den” comprised at least eleven scoundrels, including seven men and four women. And they’re not youngsters. Two are in their mid- and late twenties, five are in their thirties, three are in their forties, and one is a ripe “old” fifty-nine. Each was  reportedly charged with burglary in connection with this affair. There are also six additional suspects; their identities haven’t yet been released.

     Assume, for the moment, that the named (and pictured) individuals are indeed culpable. Was this their only faux-pas? To get an inkling of their past behavior we queried their names through Butte County’s online Superior Court case portal. Eight had previously faced criminal charges in that court system. Four had been convicted of a felony: three of a property crime (grand theft, burglary and receiving stolen property) and one for making drugs. Six had suffered misdemeanor convictions; two, for spousal battery. Two had only faced serious traffic charges. In no particular order, here’s a detailed breakdown of their prior misdeeds (M – misdemeanor, F – felony):

     Middle-aged crime groups also beset the East coast. Between June, 2022 and January 2023, a 52-year old “ringleader” and five helpmates busted into businesses throughout New York City. Their objective: A.T.M. machines. By the time they got caught they had already hauled away fourteen of the large, bulky contraptions. Their purpose was to empty them of cash; while A.T.M.’s in use usually hold about $15,000, a freshly-restocked unit might have four times as much. And like heists continue. A video depicts a masked, hooded three-man crew as they haul off an A.T.M. from a retail store. They’re believed to have perpetrated thirty-nine such thefts between September 2024 and last January. And they’re still on the loose.

     Our first example pertained to a band of young adults. Our second was about a middle-aged group. But what of those “kids” we often write about? (see, for example, “Kids With Guns”.) Well, a crew of young teens just made the headlines, and definitely not in a good way.  According to the San Jose (Calif.) Police Department, their city had been  besieged for months by six boys, ages 14-16. They had taken to hijacking cars, then using them to smash into businesses where they’d grab everything they could.

     “Dozens” of these capers reportedly took place between December, 2024 and March, 2025. And yes, the “kids” were armed. On March 25 the group stole two cars parked at a residence. They then smashed in the window of a third vehicle – it was occupied – and pulled guns on the motorist when he tried to fend them off. Their evildoing ultimately came undone when an automated license plate reader alerted officers to the presence of stolen cars in the city’s downtown. A chase ensued, and a police car got rammed. One of the perp’s fled on foot, then pulled a gun when a cop got too close.

     Three youths were arrested. Investigation soon identified their three pals, and they were also hooked up. Search warrants at the defendants’ homes turned up a wicked assortment of firearms (see left). And that’s not all. Two women “related” to the kids had apparently tried to hide the goodies. They were arrested for “attempting to discard evidence, resisting arrest, receiving stolen property and contributing to the delinquency of a minor.”

      Problem is, these are “teens.” In extreme cases, California youths sixteen and older who commit a serious violent crime can be transferred to adult court. But no matter what they’ve done, those fifteen and younger must remain in the juvenile process. While there are provisions for placing those considered irredeemable in secure group settings, nearly all wind up at home, albeit under the supervision of a probation officer. How their agency will handle these “rascals” is a bridge yet to be crossed.

     Not all criminal gangs are of domestic origin. Consider the “burglary tourists” that have been tormenting the Western U.S. Scottsdale, Ariz. police officers recently arrested seven Colombian visitors, ages 25-38, who were preying on upscale neighborhoods in the greater Los Angeles and Phoenix areas. Among the recovered plunder was a French bulldog that the group snatched for use as a prop when casing targets. Earlier this year LAPD broke up a sophisticated South American “crime ring” and recovered more than a million dollar’s worth of stolen goods from a storage unit. Police also intercepted an outgoing shipment of stolen “bitcoin-mining” computers, which are used to create bitcoins and place them into circulation. Valued at $2.7 million, the haul had been on its way to…Hong Kong!

     Compared to what seven Southern California men “accomplished,” though, all the above was...peanuts! On June 11, 2025 the group – each member is between 31-60 and has a Latin surname – was Federally indicted for committing the reportedly “largest jewelry heist in U.S. history.” Three years ago they tailed a Brinks semitruck from a jewelry show on a 300-mile journey. Finally, when the opportunity presented itself, they busted in and hauled away $100 million worth of jewelry.  They’re also accused of other cargo thefts, including a quarter-million dollar haul of electronics gear. And no, they didn’t always play “nice.” On one occasion they threatened a driver with a knife, then stole over fifty-thousand dollar’s worth of Apple AirTags from his truck. Search warrants ultimately led to the recovery of a (tiny) bit of their plunder (see image.)

     Our focus has been on small, often heavily armed groups that plan and aggressively carry out high-dollar heists. But once the pandemic let up, smash-and-grabs committed by hordes of seemingly “ordinary” citizens became commonplace. In a notorious 2023 example, “crews” assembled through social media swarmed high-end stores in Southern California. Their targets, which included Nordstrom, Yves Saint Laurent and Louis Vuitton, sustained losses exceeding $1.7 million. This problem became so pronounced that L.A.’s decidedly “Blue” voters ultimately booted their progressively-minded D.A. – by a twenty-point margin, no less – and replaced him with a former Federal prosecutor. And by an even greater margin – 40 percent –  California voters hollowed out a decade-old progressive measure, Proposition 47, that had watered down the penalties for theft and drug crimes. Its replacement, Proposition 36, increased the penalties for group heists and designated all thefts committed by repeaters as felonies.

     Has that helped? UCR’s transition to the NIBRS has been exceedingly rocky, and many agencies (including LAPD and NYPD) aren’t yet fully onboard. Bottom line: national crime data from 2023 on, and particularly for property crimes, is unreliable. So we looked within. According to LAPD, its officers recorded 14346 crimes against the person and 51863 property crimes between January 1 and June 28, 2023. The corresponding count for 2024 was 14310/52059, and for the current year it came in at 11751/42614. That trend seems consistent with the widely-held view that offending has been coming down. (For a detailed look-see that uses police data in L.A. and other major cities check out “Want Brotherly Love? Don’t be Poor!” and “Is Crime Really Down? It Depends...”).

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     Reports of mass smash-and-grabs have become rare. Most retail crime is now supposedly the product of lone “boosters” who amble into stores with empty bags, then exit with everything from cosmetics to clothing (natch, after snipping off the tags.) And just as we were “going to press” an in-depth piece in the Los Angeles Times (hey, we get home delivery!) caught our attention. It’s about a concerted police “crackdown” on retailers whom police accuse of knowingly buying stolen goods from these “loners” for resale.

     Still, while pilfering may have taken on a somewhat different face, it nonetheless continues. So, is there a solution? If the only “fix” is the paddle, maybe not. A distinction between “property” and “violent” crime pervades the process, from the “catching” stage on. For punishment to truly have an effect, it may need to be severe. But imprisoning so-called “shoplifters” seems well beyond what society would tolerate – or the system could handle.

     Back to square one!

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Citizen Misbehavior Breeds Voter Discontent     Want Brotherly Love? Don’t be Poor!

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MORE POVERTY, LESS TRUST

Citizens who most need the cops trust them the least

     For Police Issues by Julius (Jay) Wachtel. Our lead graphic uses UCR and NIBRS data published by the Murder Accountability Project to illustrate Chicago’s long-standing problem with crime, and particularly of the violent kind. In 2018, the “windy city’s” chronically high murder rate and abysmally low solution drove its leaders to ask the Police Executive Research Forum to probe things and offer advice. Was there anything that could realistically be done?

     Funded in part by a Federal grant, a team of specialists spent a year reviewing Chicago PD’s investigative practices, analyzing its material and personnel resources, examining examples of past casework, and interviewing detectives and staff members. A detailed assessment offering eighty-nine specific recommendations was delivered in 2019. Best we can tell, that tome wasn’t publicly released. But on April 24, 2025 CPD posted an 87-page report that “highlights instrumental changes the Department has made to align with  recommendations in key areas of staffing, organizational structure, oversight, training, policies and procedures, and equipment and technology.” Readers get a step-by-step tour of just what the beset agency‘s done to implement PERF’s recommendations.

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     Has it helped? Check out our updated version of the graphics:

In 2023, four years into the re-do, the city’s murder rates were nearly one-quarter (23.9 percent) worse than in 2019. And the percent of homicides cleared correspondingly plunged. While 2024 clearance rates aren’t yet in, Chicago PD reported 573 murders in 2024, yielding a per/100,000 homicide rate of 21.1. That’s a bit “improved” from 2023 but still way beyond the pale.

     Chicago PD’s report doesn’t get into the “numbers.” But it does offer abundant praise for PERF’s team, without whom “the Department and Bureau of Detectives could not have advanced as rapidly and successfully in implementing these reforms to homicide investigations.”

     Job done, right? Well, not so fast. “I get that they’re understaffed. But at the same time, where’s my justice?” That lament was recently conveyed to the Chicago Sun-Times by a rideshare driver who was shot and seriously wounded during a 2021 robbery. That “understaffing” (and its consequences) also catches heat from the cops. Here’s what a retired detective had to say. “In some districts, in the summer, you might be getting five or seven shooting cases a week. Even if you wanted to run down every case like [it was] a murder, there’s just no time to do it….”

     According to the Sun-Times, compared to L.A., only half as many of Chicago’s cops are detectives. That shortage of investigators supposedly contributes to poor solution rates and high levels of crime. Indeed, increasing the number of detectives was a key element of PERF’s plan. Chief Ursitti told reporters earlier this year that a team of detectives had recently been formed to specialize in shooting investigations, and that the unit’s size would expand.

     To be sure, more detectives can prove useful. Detailed sweeps of crime scenes and the execution of search warrants and such can yield valuable evidence. But there’s no substitute for having citizens promptly alert police when things go astray. Witness testimony is always crucial, and picking out evildoers from a lineup can’t be done by a machine. Of course, Chicago well knows that citizen cooperation is key. In fact, during 2018-2023 the city paid a private firm to survey citizens about their feelings of safety and, just as importantly, of their trust in the police.

     Might how citizens feel about cops affect their peace-keepers’ end product? We used the r correlation statistic to assess the relationship between the trust that residents expressed in the police, district by district, and homicide rates per 100,000 pop. (trust data is from 2023, the most recent year available.) The r scale ranges from zero, meaning no relationship between measures (“variables”) to one, meaning that they move in lockstep. Here the outcome, r=-.76, suggests that trust and homicide are strongly linked. It’s negative: as scores for one increase, scores for the other decrease. Grab a look. Each district is a “dot.” Those on the low end of the trust scale (left side) have mostly high homicide rates, while those at the high end of the trust scale (right side) mostly enjoy low homicide rates.

     Point made? Well, not so fast. Problem is, that seemingly strong statistical relationship between trust and homicide, which is consistent with the former’s role as a “cause” of the latter, may have actually been produced by a third factor with which both measures are strongly associated. Indeed, whenever the “effect” is violent crime, we’ve always turned to poverty as the likely suspect.

Check the scattergram on the left. Poverty’s relationship with homicide yields a pronounced r of .86: as poverty goes up, so do murders, and nearly in lockstep. What’s more, the relationship between poverty and trust (right graphic) is also very strong. At r= -.86 it’s (coincidentally) of the same magnitude but negative, meaning that as poverty increases, trust systematically declines.

     Poverty is strongly associated with both homicide and trust. Might that exaggerate the magnitude of trust’s seeming relationship with homicide? To find out we turned to “partial correlation,” a technique that strips away the influence of a third variable from a two-way relationship. Here’s the result:

• Trust and homicide: Trust and homicide (left table) have a strong r of -.76. But when the influence of poverty is removed (right table), their relationship plunges to a measly -.08. It literally disappears.
   
• Poverty and homicide: When the influence of trust is removed, the relationship between poverty and homicide drops from a weighty .86 (left table) to a lesser but still substantial .62 (right table.)
   
• Poverty and trust: When the influence of homicide is removed, the relationship between poverty and trust drops from -.86 (left table) to a still-substantial -.62 (right table).

     Lack of trust in the police might well be another of poverty’s unholy effects. But put trust aside for the moment. Homicide-wise, poverty clearly has the leading role. And in Chicago, its effects may have become even more pronounced last year. This scattergram compares percent in poverty and 2024 district homicide rates. Look at those dots! (again, each is a district.) This time the relationship between poverty and homicide produces an r of .90, only inches away from a “perfect” 1.0. (Note: According to a CPD news release, homicides fell from 620 in 2023 to 573 in 2024. Our district-by-district count using the city’s “crime dashboard” produced 586 homicides for 2024. So that’s the number we used. Thankfully, it’s only a small difference. Alas, there were no trust scores for 2024. But that’s for another day!)

     Back to trust. According to the Sun-Times, “Chicago police have a low level of trust among the public, particularly in communities where most shootings happen.” Its probe discovered that “about 1,500 nonfatal shootings since 2018 were dropped because the victims of those shootings didn’t want to help with the investigation.” Bottom line: poverty and homicide really are that proverbial “horse and carriage.” And trust is clearly along for the ride. Problem is, residents of stricken areas know full well that calling in the “Mounties” could easily place them  – and their families – at grave personal risk. So of course they’d think twice before helping the cops.

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     Is that frustrating? Ask the rideshare driver.

    What can be done? Tweaking police deployment and such might help. But don’t expect miracles. As we’ve often argued, what’s really needed is a socio-economic transformation of poverty-stricken neighborhoods. Here’s an outtake from “Let’s Stop Pretending”:

     To be sure, the craft of policing can always improve. But poverty and the things that come with poverty can make even “routine” policing exasperating. As we recently noted in “Fix Those Neighborhoods!” and “Human Renewal,” making a real difference would require a concerted effort to provide needy areas with resources and services that might prevent the next Adam Toledo from running around with an armed gang-member at one in the morning. That calls for major investments in child care, tutoring, job training, apprenticeships, health care and housing. And yes, it would be expensive, and yes, residents of better-off areas might complain.

     What can you do? Pass it on!

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